Missing the significance of IPEF
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Missing the significance of IPEF The Quad and the IPEF may not be aimed Despite its misgivings India stands to gain from the overlap in the explicitly at the strategic containment of China but clearly seek to offer a credible alternative to a agenda ofthe Quad and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Chinese dominated Asian order The idea is to offer ILLUSTRATION BINAY SINHAan alternative set of security and economic arrange- ments which may expand the room for manoeuvre for Indo-Pacific countries vis-a-vis China The Quad is becoming more pointed in confront- ing China in the region While still not naming China the May 24 Quad joint statement declares that its members oppose actions such as militari- sation of disputed features the dangerous use of coast guard vessels and maritime militia and efforts to disrupt other countries offshore resource exploit- ation activities That the target is China is more than obvious The IPEF also has an anti-China orien- tation though articulated explicitly only by the US so far At a briefing to introduce the IPEF the US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo described the initiative as an alternative to China s approach to these critical issues these being issues compris- ing the four modules Is the IPEF an alternative to the Regional Cooperative Economic Partnership RCEP or even the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership CPTTP How will it relate to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC forum As has The US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework India s membership followed logically from its par- been repeatedly emphasised by the US the IPEF is IPEF was announced on May 23 in Tokyo ticipation in the Quad IPEF in turn would have not a free trade agreement it does not involve agree- just a day before the convening of the fourth lost much of its relevance without India ments related to reciprocal tariff cuts However sub- summit of the Quad countries India is a critical There will be areas where India will find sub- sequent negotiations under the four modules are partner in both groupings The US Indo-Pacific sequent negotiations difficult and the trade-offs expected to result in agreements related to regulatory strategy now has two pillars political and eco- complex and ambiguous For example the trade pil- coherence common standards and norms The latter nomic and the integral link between the two is lar will be centred on the digital economy including are part of the existing trade agreements though their the key to assessing the likely trajectory of a region cross-border data flows and data localisation on salience may be more or less The CPTTP for exam- that is home to India India s participation in both which India has distinctive positions India s reser- ple has more stringent regulatory provisions and constitutes the country s Indo-Pacific strategy vations are apparent from the fact that at the first standards while the RCEP does not To the extent although this has not yet been declared as such ministerial level meeting on the trade module con- that future provisions under the IPEF will constitute The Quad has only four vened by the US in Paris last week binding commitments it will resemble a classic trade members India Australia Japan India sent an additional secretary agreement If the participants can pick and choose and the US The IPEF has 13 includ- to attend It is not clear whether which commitments they assume then there will be ing the members of the Quad seven India will participate in subsequent a range of provisions which will be more in the nature members of Asean South Korea and negotiations under this module of best practices This is the approach followed by New Zealand The latter is an eco- However it may gain from what the APEC which is also not a trade negotiating body nomic grouping but has a clear geo- IPEF and the Quad may offer in India had applied to become a member of APEC political dimension The Quad is a enhancing India s capabilities in and came close to being admitted at the APEC sum- geopolitical grouping but has sig- cyber security and in a range of mit in 2016 However it was the US which stymied nificant economic content extend- emerging technologies such as the admission by demanding a number of trade ing outwards into the Indo-Pacific Artificial Intelligence related concessions from India These were rejected The four broad modules or pillars India has something significant precisely because APEC is not a trading arrangement under the IPEF will link seamlessly SHYAM SARAN to bring to the table in the fields of but a forum for exchanging and cooperating on trade with corresponding areas of Quad space and maritime surveillance and investment related best practices on a purely collaboration For example the objective of estab- The Quad Satellite Data Portal will draw from India s voluntary basis India s membership of APEC which lishing resilient supply chains pursuing standard network of resource satellites while the Indo-Pacific is private sector driven would have exposed Indian and norm setting in critical and emerging technol- Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness will industry to advanced international standards and ogies contributing to regional infrastructure and use Indian advance capabilities in this field The enabled it to benefit from collaboration with coun- implementing a clean and green agenda There is a IPEF has purposely been kept as a broad template terparts in other countries While joining the IPEF significant overlap in the agenda of the Quad and at this stage with considerable flexibility available India should press for its membership of APEC at the IPEF and to that extent the Quad has become to shape the emerging regimes in the four modules its next summit This may be an opportune moment the core of a larger Indo-Pacific construct with both More importantly it is not necessary for a partici- to achieve this long-standing objective security and economic dimensions The significance pating country to sign on to all four modules and of this may have been missed There were reports this may have been reassuring enough for India to The writer is a formerforeign secretary and a senior about India s misgivings about joining the IPEF become a member fellow CPR